London is expected to build 88,000 new homes every year for the next decade – but will struggle to do this unless the Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham and another major rail project are given the go-ahead, the capital’s deputy mayor for housing has said.  

Tom Copley said the next London Plan – the capital’s blueprint for its future development – would factor in the government’s request, which is part of a wider target for 1.5 million new homes across the country by 2029, but may fall short without enough new infrastructure. 

He told the London Assembly Budget and Performance Committee that a “huge amount of infrastructure and funding” are needed to reach the 88,000 figure.

This includes the DLR extension to the planned Thamesmead Waterfront development, which could allow 30,000 homes to be built on both sides of the Thames. The scheme won backing in Rachel Reeves’ budget in November but the government has not made clear how much it will contribute to the project.

But Copley said the government needed to help fund the Bakerloo Line extension to Lewisham and Hayes and another project, the West London Orbital, if the capital was to hit its targets. Neither project was mentioned in the Labour chancellor’s budget.

He said: “We’re going to be planning for 880,000 homes over the next 10 years. But to be clear, the London Plan is not a delivery plan. It’s a spatial development strategy. So we’re going to be planning the homes that we need.

“But we’re also very, very clear that in order to actually get to that target, a lot of things have to happen. The DLR extension, which I mentioned, is very, very important.

“We also need a Bakerloo Line extension, the West London Orbital. We need a huge amount of infrastructure and a huge amount of funding in order to be able to get to that 88,000 figure.”

Dudding Hill Junction and old signal box
This sleepy freight line through Harlesden would be used to create the West London Orbital. Image: The Greenwich Wire

Transport for London has long wanted to refurbish the Bakerloo Line and extend it from Elephant & Castle to at least as far as Lewisham, ultimately taking over the National Rail line through Catford Bridge to Hayes. 

Independent analysis from the consulting firm Hatch suggests that 107,000 new homes could be built along the Bakerloo Line if it is eventually extended to Hayes.

The West London Orbital would use a combination of existing passenger and freight lines so London Overground trains could run from Hounslow to Hendon or West Hampstead, enabling up to 15,800 new homes.

It is understood that while conversations are ongoing between City Hall and Whitehall, there are no plans to approve either scheme in the coming years. An express bus, the BL1, started running last year between Waterloo and Lewisham, along the route of the hoped-for Bakerloo extension.

Copley also reiterated that the housing targets could not be reached without building on green belt land, which is land in outer London that is largely protected from development. However, he could not give an estimate for the proportion of new homes that would need to be constructed on the green belt.

Kumail Jaffer is the Local Democracy Reporter covering London’s mayor and assembly. The Greenwich Wire is a partner in the Local Democracy Reporting Service, which is a BBC-funded initiative to ensure councils are covered properly in local media.

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