Parts of Woolwich and Plumstead are among the London neighbourhoods that have gentrified most rapidly over the past decade, an analysis has found.
A study by the Trust for London charity identified 53 areas where average incomes had grown by an average of 11 per cent between 2012 and 2020, compared with a 1 per cent rise across London.
Trust for London said the capital was at a “tipping point”, with many families unable to afford to live in the city.
The most extreme changes were in Spitalfields, east London, with a 45 per cent rise in residents’ pay, while nearby Aldgate had a 29 per cent increase and Bethnal Green South had 27 percent. All three are in Tower Hamlets, which was found to be the most gentrified borough as it contained 12 of the 53 neighbourhoods.
Three areas were in the borough of Greenwich. Woolwich South, where the average income had gone up by 15 per cent, was 19th. Average incomes there had risen from £27,828 in 2012 to £32,000 in 2020. Meanwhile, Plumstead High Street was 38th (8.9 per cent) and Woolwich West was 45th (7.4 per cent).
In two of these areas, a Greenwich Council programme to redevelop estates in Woolwich – and to break up concentrations of council housing – provides a reason for the figures.
Woolwich South covers the area where the notorious Connaught Estate was demolished in 2016 and replaced with the Trinity Walk development with a loss of council homes.
Meanwhile, Woolwich West includes where the Morris Walk Estate was demolished and the new Trinity Park development is being built – again, with a loss of council housing, although some is being included in the new estate.
However, there has been little development around Plumstead High Street, which describes an area stretching between Winn’s Common and Church Manorway. The statistical areas that feature in the study are based on parts of council wards and were the ones used on the Covid-19 dashboard at the height of the pandemic.
The analysis was focused only on areas which in 2012 were found in the lowest 20 per cent of average incomes in London. Many of the areas in that lowest 20 per cent – including parts of Abbey Wood, Thamesmead and Deptford – have not gentrified to the same extent, and are therefore not included in the 53 neighbourhoods.
In its research, produced in partnership with the WPI Economics consultancy, the Trust defined gentrification as “the influx of more affluent residents in lower income areas, relative to the residents that were already there, and the displacement of the previous population”.
The 53 gentrified areas saw increases in the proportion of couples without children. The analysis explains that “one of the biggest threats of gentrification is that it makes London so expensive families can no longer afford to raise children here”. The Plumstead High Street area includes Gallions Mount primary school, which Greenwich Council recently conformed would close this summer.
The analysis also found that in the 53 gentrified places, there was a “remarkable” decrease of almost two percentage points in the proportion of black people living in them, despite the fact that London’s black population remained essentially static between 2012 and 2020.
This equates to “around 10,000 black Londoners that we would see living in these 53 neighbourhoods if the proportion had stayed the same”, the research states.
Manny Hothi, Trust for London’s chief executive, said: “This research points to something that many Londoners have suspected for years – the city is becoming increasingly unaffordable for low-income families. We’re witnessing families and long-standing communities being priced out on a scale we haven’t seen before.
“London’s diverse blend of communities is what makes it one of the best cities in the world. But the current trend shows the city is at a tipping point, at risk of being a homogenous place where only people above a certain income bracket can afford to be.”
No areas in Lewisham and Bexley feature in the list; in Southwark, parts of Peckham, Camberwell and Bermondsey are included, while in Bromley parts of Anerley, Penge and St Mary Cray feature.
Full details of the study are on the Trust for London website.
Noah Vickers is the Local Democracy Reporter for City Hall. The Local Democracy Reporting Service is a BBC-funded initiative to ensure councils are covered properly in local media. Editing and additional reporting by Darryl Chamberlain.
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