Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey overturned Labour’s lead in Eltham, polling data shows

Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey topped the poll on first-preferences in Eltham constituency in this month’s election, detailed voting figures have revealed.

Bailey’s election campaign was much mocked on social media but he ran Labour’s Sadiq Khan far closer than expected, taking 35 per cent of first-preference votes across London, compared with 40 per cent for Khan.

Last week the GLA issued breakdowns of the vote by council ward, allowing for more local analysis to be carried out.

While Khan comfortably took most votes in Greenwich & Woolwich – by 48 per cent to Bailey’s 23 per cent – it was the Tory challenger who came out on top in the seven wards which make up the Eltham constituency, by 44 per cent to 33 per cent. In 2016, Khan narrowly won the most first-preference votes on the day in Eltham – beating Zac Goldsmith by 39 per cent to 37 per cent.

Sian Berry, for the Greens, came third in both constituencies, with 10 per cent in Greenwich & Woolwich and eight per cent in Eltham.

These figures do not include postal votes, which are not broken down by ward but counted across the borough as a whole. One in five voters in Greenwich sent their ballot papers by post. Khan won by 40 per cent to 32 per cent on postal votes – roughly similar to his on-the-day vote in the borough.MAYORAL ELECTION FIRST PREFERENCE VOTES (PINK BALLOT PAPER)

	Shaun Bailey (Tory)	Sadiq Khan (Labour)	Sian Berry (Green)	Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)
Coldharbour & New Eltham	55	23	6	2
Eltham South	51	27	7	2
Eltham North	46	31	9	3
Eltham West	48	32	7	2
Middle Park and Sutcliffe	39	37	7	3
Kidbrooke with Hornfair	38	36	8	3
Blackheath Westcombe	25	44	11	7
Abbey Wood	36	40	6	2
Shooters Hill	32	44	9	2
Peninsula	22	47	13	5
Thamesmead Moorings	36	41	5	2
Plumstead	31	45	6	2
Charlton	25	46	10	3
Greenwich West	19	50	12	6
Woolwich Riverside	24	49	8	3
Glyndon	25	49	8	2
Woolwich Common	23	51	8	2
Postal votes	32	40	7	5
GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL	32	41	8	4
Eltham (except postal votes)	44	33	8	3
Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes)	23	48	10	4

Bailey’s strongest showing was in the far south of the borough. He racked up 55 per cent of the on-the-day vote in Coldharbour and New Eltham, bordering Bexley and Bromley boroughs – compared with just 23 per cent for Khan. Bailey also claimed the most on-the-day votes in Eltham South (51 per cent) and Eltham North (46 per cent).

But strikingly, he also notched up the most on-the-day votes in Eltham West, long considered a safe Labour council seat, with 48 per cent of the vote compared with Khan’s 32 per cent. The ward includes new housing in Kidbrooke Village and the Page Estate, where Greenwich Council pulled back from introducing a low-traffic neighbourhood-style scheme in the days before the vote. It also includes part of the Brook Estate, where the council has started to build new social housing on green space.

Bailey also scored narrow on-the-day victories in Middle Park & Sutcliffe and Kidbrooke with Hornfair – edging ahead of Khan by two percentage points. However, Labour scored a comfortable victory in a council by-election on the same day in Kidbrooke with Hornfair, and polled more than the Tories in both wards in the two other polls, for London Assembly members.

In the north-east of the borough, Bailey also came close in Abbey Wood and Thamesmead Moorings – just four percentage points behind Khan in both.

With the mayoral system using first and second choices, the first-preference votes are likely to be a more accurate representation of people’s real views than a first-past-the-post election. Some people who chose not to back Khan as their first choice may return to Labour in a more traditional poll, while Bailey had less credible competition for rightwing votes following the collapse of Ukip.

While some of Bailey’s tactics – including campaigning outside Greater London in Watford and Brentwood – met with derision, his messages on knife crime and drivers’ rights cut through more than many pundits had expected. LONDON ASSEMBLY: GREENWICH AND LEWISHAM CONSTITUTENCY VOTE (YELLOW BALLOT PAPER)

	Charlie Davis (Tory)	Len Duvall (Labour)	Rosamund Kissi-Debrah (Green)	Chris Annous (Lib Dem)
Coldharbour & New Eltham	51	30	10	5
Eltham South	48	30	11	6
Eltham North	45	35	12	5
Eltham West	40	38	12	5
Middle Park and Sutcliffe	33	40	14	8
Kidbrooke with Hornfair	33	44	13	6
Blackheath Westcombe	25	40	20	12
Abbey Wood	29	52	10	4
Shooters Hill	27	53	13	5
Peninsula	21	44	22	10
Thamesmead Moorings	27	54	10	4
Plumstead	26	54	11	5
Charlton	22	51	17	7
Greenwich West	18	50	19	11
Woolwich Riverside	20	55	15	7
Glyndon	20	59	13	5
Woolwich Common	19	60	13	6
Postal votes	30	45	13	8
GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL	29	46	14	7
Eltham (except postal votes)	40	39	12	6
Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes)	21	50	18	9

For the Greens, Sian Berry scored best in Peninsula ward, home to the Silvertown Tunnel, with 13 per cent of the on-the-day vote. She also scored 12 per cent of the vote in Greenwich West, 11 per cent in the highly marginal Blackheath Westcombe ward and 10 per cent in Charlton.

Berry also took nine per cent of votes in Eltham North, another marginal ward – showing that green-minded voters will hold some sway when it comes to the next council election.

But it was in the London Assembly polls where the Greens really piled on the votes – with Rosamund Kissi-Debrah pushing Conservative candidate Charlie Davis into third place in Peninsula and Greenwich West wards, again with postal votes excluded. LONDON ASSEMBLY: PARTY LIST VOTE (ORANGE BALLOT PAPER)

	Tory	Labour	Green	Lib Dem
Coldharbour & New Eltham	48	26	8	4
Eltham South	46	28	10	4
Eltham North	41	30	12	5
Eltham West	38	35	10	4
Middle Park & Sutcliffe	32	36	12	5
Kidbrooke with Hornfair	30	40	11	4
Blackheath Westcombe	23	35	17	9
Abbey Wood	27	47	8	3
Shooters Hill	25	47	12	3
Peninsula	19	42	19	8
Thamesmead Moorings	26	50	6	2
Plumstead	25	49	10	3
Charlton	20	45	14	5
Greenwich West	17	45	17	10
Woolwich Riverside	19	51	12	4
Glyndon	18	54	10	3
Woolwich Common	18	56	10	4
Postal votes	28	39	10	6
GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL	27	41	12	5
Eltham (except postal votes)	37	35	11	4
Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes)	19	46	15	7

For the Lib Dems, Luisa Porritt scored best in Blackheath Westcombe (7 per cent), followed by Greenwich West (6 per cent) and Peninsula (5 per cent).

Party strategists will now be trying to work out what all this means for the next council election, which is due next May. However, these will be fought on new wards – making the political map of parts of Greenwich borough harder to predict than before.

Full ward-level voting details for all mayoral candidates is available on the London Elects website.

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